Has this been a good week for Gordon Brown? Everything is relative, I suppose and he's had worse ones recently. As with the French Revolution it is probably too early to tell if it has been a good week, but it has certainly been a significant one.
It certainly hasn't been plain sailing this week:
- Frank Field launched a vociferous attack on his Prime Minister predicting that he will be out of a job by the time the next election happens, that Brown's personality was a "mega-problem" for the Labour party and threatened that Labour back-benchers would block the budget over the 10p Tax Rate row.
- Lord Levy, in a BBC interview publicising his serialised memoirs, asserts that Brown almost certainly knew about the dodgy donations which led to the criminal investigation into the 'cash for honours' scandal.
- John Prescott recounted the story of a pre-budget statement which Brown refused to disclose to his then-Prime Minister Tony Blair and gave him a very poor character reference.
- Scottish Labour party leader Wendy Alexander broke long-established Labour policy of opposition to a referendum on Scottish independence and called for one.
- Hazel Blears floated the ridiculous notion of Brown appearing as an "Alan Sugar-type figure" in a politics-based TV show based on 'The Apprentice'.
- Housing Minister Caroline Flint inadvertently leaked private Cabinet briefing papers which stated that house prices would fall by "at best" 5-10% which contradicts the official Government line.
- Labour activists, with the endorsement of the party, have been controversially stalking the Tory candidate for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election dressed in a top hat and tails to mock his "Toff" background. This follows David Cameron's visit on Monday when he was ambushed by activists in hooded clothing brandishing "Hug a hoodie" placards.
- Bank of England Governer Mervyn King braodly hinted that he fears that a recession will hit the UK economy in the next eighteen months.
- Even this morning John Humphreys gave him a real roasting on the Today programme on Radio Four over Alastair Darling's compensation package for people affected by the abolition of the 10p Tax Rate.
After a week like that, it could be argued that mere survival could be described as a success!
The Prime Minister's week has, of course, hinged on the 10p Tax Rate compensation package and I believe that this might well have bought him some time with the electorate. It was probably as well received by the right-wing press as Gordon Brown could have hoped for. For the first time in some time Brown managed to avoid giving his detractors a stick to beat him with. The Financial Times said "The retreat might turn out to be the moment when the government fightback began" and the Daily Mail concurred "it is nonsense to argue...that the 10p debacle is a fatal wound... the Prime Minister has listened to the public and acted to rectify his error". The Tory party criticised him for incompetence in withdrawing the 10p Tax Rate- which they originally endorsed- and criticised him for introducing a compensation package - which they had been calling for- and offered no alternative despite repeated questioning on the point.
The compensation package isn't perfect but it is a very good response, that much was clear from George Osborne's flabbergasted response to the announcement and offers the Labour party a new line of attack against the Tories: "they want to cut taxes for the rich with reduced inheritance tax and stamp duty on shares and we have made 22 million lower-paid workers better off". Hopefully, we can now be spared the ludicrous spectre of the Tories pretending that they are even slightly concerned about the plight of the poor. That will save me from the discomfort of my stomach being turned by Cameron's crocodile tears, at least.
This move was followed-up with the strong response to Wendy Alexander by her Scottish parliamentary party which reinforced Brown's grip on his party and removed that line of attack against him.
And this was followed in turn by the Prime Minister's draft legislative programme; the second he has announced less than twelve months into the job with the first still only partly implemented. The four themes that make up his 'vision', are either quintessentially Brown projects (developing individual potential and economic stability) or typically New Labour (devolution of power and personalised public services). The strategy of presenting Brown as the embodiment of continuity and change simultaneously appears to be back on the agenda, which is a smart move. Again, this programme is not beyond criticism- the NHS constitution isn't a policy after all, it's merely corporate rebranding- but it did have a clear structure and it could not realistically be accused of being gimmicky. Brown has left himself open to that charge too often recently and again this shows that he has learned, as well as hinting at the substance which was his major selling point during his honeymoon, the so-called 'Brown bounce'.
Again, the Tories were left with little room for dispute by the substance of the announcement and their main line of attack was that many of the policies were stolen from them. I think everyone realises that both parties are guilty of poaching centrally-located ideas from one another and has almost come to accept it. But isn't it equally true to say that the little patch of centre-ground that both parties are trying to plant their flag in is so small that overlap and repetition is simply inevitable?
This week has seen Brown take another personal mauling from Cameron and his cronies, but he has become visibly more confident as the week has gone on- he has demonstrated a greater control over his party rebels and moved the public debate back towards policy and away from personality. If he can continue to progress in this manner, then this has been a good week as it will have been the week that the tide turned. Next week's by-election may just come too soon for him, but it is not inconceivable that the vote could become the next step in his rehabilitation. If only someone can get through to him on the matter of 42-day detention, the Labour party could actually be back in business as a party who are serious about staying in office.
