Clutching at straws I know, but losing tonight's by-election in Crewe and Nantwich may be less devastating in the long-term than some commentators would have you think. Politicalbetting.com have suggested that tonight may do for Brown what an Eastbourne by-election loss did for Maggie Thatcher in 1990 and hasten the end. I subscribe to a different view.
Gordon Brown and his strategy team must paint Cameron as cocky, brief consistently that he is being premature and presumptuous about the outcome in (presumably) 2009. When David Cameron arrives in Crewe and Nantwich to deliver a victory speech, it is the ideal place to start. At the same time, Brown must be presented as the underdog. He must sharpen the contrast with Cameron and appeal to the electorate's inherent sense of fair-play and empathy. Brown has spoken about listening and learning and should now be sure to show contrition. He must demonstrate that he wants to be in tune with the British people. It is cynical political positioning and it is most transparent, but no-one surely expects Labour to rise above this kind of thing because you can be sure that the Conservatives would do precisely the same thing in the circumstances.
Of course, this alone is insufficient to do anything than earn him pity. As I have said, and I'm not alone in this, Brown must be statesmanlike and clear in his vision. Leave the tinkering behind and concentrate on a programme of a few sensible policies.
The response to the 10p tax rate mistakes and being seen to be taking control of his party once again probably stopped the slump. Despite being a free vote, the embryology debates will have given him some traction as his view was in step with the majority of the Commons. His response to tonight's election loss (as it surely will be) can, if it is presented correctly, continue that slow progress. Losing the election will also show how far that process has to go. How much bad faith has still to be overturned. Hopefully, it will also clearly demonstrate the ill-advised nature of the strategy of attacking the Tory 'toff' candidate and inflaming the fears of the settled population over EU immigration- irrespective of how baseless those fears may be.
There are two years left until the election. Should Barack Obama win the Presidency in the meantime, then this will give Brown the opportunity to begin the complete withdrawal from Iraq whilst maintaining the American links that are so important to a more conservative section of the electorate- as well as Whitehall. This will be another opportunity for Brown "to embody change and continuity". This can make the Labour party electable- which they aren't at the moment- and then it is a matter of praying that Cameron snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The Labour party must keep their heads whatever happens tonight. If Brown has to go, then this Autumn ahead of the party conference is the time to make the change. The ball is in Brown's court.
