I tend to shy away from reading about the financial machinations of the film industry as it takes away some of the 'magic' of cinema and because I get enough of that at work anyway. But in the circumstances of the much-delayed and increasingly subject to delay 23rd official James Bond film it has become imperative that I get to know what's going on and so I'll record my understanding here.
MGM are essentially bankrupt, owing more than they can realistically ever hope to repay at their current and projected income levels. Their assets are, basically, their back catalogue, the rights to the Lord of the Rings franchise and half of the rights to Bond. Eon, who make Bond under licence for MGM, are not proceeding with Bond 23 (and Peter Jackson isn't with The Hobbit) in a bid to push MGM into selling off the assets and closing down. The next deadline for payments is July 14. At this point either MGM try to prolong their existence, with no prospect of Bond 23 being made, or sell the franchise off (either separately as part of their assets).
Once the rights to Bond are sold, progress can begin on Bond 23 with Craig, Mendes, Dench et al as the first choice team. If this happens quickly after the July 14 deadline, then Bond 23 could appear in summer 2012 for the 50th anniversary of Dr No. If not, then the prospects of Dench (who is already in her 70s) and Craig (who will be approaching his mid-40s) reappearing diminishes with every passing year.
So, if I'm right- and after a lot of reading up on it, I'm certain I am- it's a wait and see matter. Bloody frustrating!
